I had an incident a few weeks back where I had PP 9s in late position. A few players had called the BB and I raised it up almost 6x the BB. One person called me, who up to that point had hardly played a hand, but when they did, they played the ususal range from J9 upwards With them only calling pre-flop before I had raised it, I knew they probably only had overcards at most. Q rag rag hit the flop. They checked, and as they were pretty shortstacked after calling my raise – and I had them more than covered – I put them all in and they called instantly. They turned over Q7 suited. I got no help from the turn or river and doubled them up. The reason they played it…… yup you got it….. it was sooooooted!

OK, this wasn’t a suckout, but it was a rediculous monkey play on their part all the way through the hand. You can try all you want to force people to fold, but if the monkey brain clicks into gear there is no telling what might happen. Even if I had had pocked aces this muppet would have called. You just cannot legislate for these people.

I guess I am just trying to become more “aware” while playing. Suck outs happen, it’s part of the game. Over time, you will be ahead if you go in with the winning hands.

Maybe I am over analyizing the whole thing. Monkeys do what Monkeys do.
I just want to be the guy in the hand when the Monkeys luck runs out…lol

I think that is a difficult task mate. The very meaning of the word in poker means you lost the hand whilst holding the best cards and having the odds very much in your favour. That is exactly the plays you are trying to create whilst in the game, your money in with the % on you taking it down. If anything you should be looking for players to (lol) expose yourself to so they can try sucking you out! The stats will pay you off handsomely in the long run.

“I want to learn more about identifying whether or not I am in a situation where I can be sucked out.”

Unless you are holding the absolute nuts you are ALWAYS at a risk of being beat or sucked out. You could play only the nuts all the time but it would be a boring old time of it eh?

Your in depth explanation of what if’s is interesting and pretty much the way I would have perceived the card by card play.

I understand your reasoning on betting the turn card that gave you set and most times I would do the same. But now and then I will try and draw more money out of the pot by allowing the opponent to stay in with a smaller bet.

Sure he/she may suck me out now and then but the % says I will win more than him over the long haul. If I am having a hard time accumulating chips at a table and feel like a gamble (with the odds in my favour) I will tease the suck out players into staying in.

I wouldn’t toy with my tournament life in that situation, but every time a chaser hits the 4%’r on the river and sucks me out, that just boosts their flawed confidence in thinking they knew what they were doing and they are even more likely to try it again and again and again..

I’ll just comment on one bit as it stuck in my head for some reason and that was where you said;
“So, lets say I am the one that raised with PP 10’s and I get a caller. The button calls the raise, everyone else folds. .. My first thought is my opponent isn’t on PP Q’s or higher. If so, they probably would have re-raised (maybe PP A’s being slow played but usually that doesn’t happen).”

That isn’t so black and white for me. When you play a strong pair from pre flop you try to narrow the field by raising, correct? If I pulled AA on the button there I would be tempted to slow play them by flat calling you, simply because YOUR raise has done the narrowing job for me. I now have the nuts and my hand is perfectly disguised by YOUR raise not my call..

But really I am just being a bit pedantic, as a general rule your analysis and breakdown of your thought process is about spot on for my money.

I agree with most everything in your analysis Dave. Not much room to add anything. A couple of points but nothing big.

Gimme a day to ponder on it I’ll come up with something.