Big pot suck outs – continued
November 8, 2007
Well, my last post was a jumbled mess. I am trying to communicate something and I am not doing a very good job of it.
My buddy, Blagger reminded me of that in his answer to my previous post.
So, I am going to make it worse by expanding on it in this one…lol
I think, what I was trying to talk about was more about identification of a hand/opponent than the actual suck out. Blagger made a good point. If you aren’t in the big pot to be sucked out in the first place you aren’t playing right.
By definition, being “sucked out” means you went in with the best hand. What more can you ask for than to be in the big pot with the best hand going in? Isn’t that the point? Doyle even teaches that. He will go in big pots sometimes knowing he is behind but he may gamble if he has a chance because winning the big pot is one of the keys to successful poker.
I want to try to minimize my exposure to being sucked out on. I want to learn more about identifying whether or not I am in a situation where I can be sucked out.
Lets try a example. I was playing in a League game the other day. I was in late position and watching. A League player (not going to name them because I don’t want them to change their style) was utg and raised about 6 times the BB. I knew right then and there that player was on PP J’s or PP 10’s. (well, not exactly J’s or 10’s but a med/high pp).
So, when it was my turn to act, there was no way I was going to play anything unless it was PP Q’s or higher. A K is a race with me behind so even if I had A K I probably would have folded. (I say probably because it would have depended on how much alcoholic stupidity I had consumed..lol). That decision keeps me out of a suck out scenario.
On the opposite side of that fence, I want to get better at trying to identify what kind of hand I am up against when I am the one with the PP 10’s and I get called. So, lets say I am the one that raised with PP 10’s and I get a caller. The button calls the raise, everyone else folds. What do you think?
My thought process before the flop hits would be something like this (this is general, assume chip stacks are about the same and player competency is about the same. Chip stack differences and player competency WILL effect my decision).
My first thought is my opponent isn’t on PP Q’s or higher. If so, they probably would have re-raised (maybe PP A’s being slow played but usually that doesn’t happen). I also wouldn’t put them on middle to low suited connectors. PP 2-8, probably not. So, I figure I am up against A K, A Q, A K suited, A Q suited, K Q suited, maybe A J suited. So, since I am first to act after the flop I will need to consider my thinking.
If the flop comes 3 cards under 10’s rainbow – all in. ( this is where I could be setting myself up for a “suck out”) I don’t want any high cards coming out on the turn or river. I don’t want possible back door flush draws either. Usually, the all-in bet will win the hand. However if you opponent thinks your bluffing or I misread the hand, I may get called. I really don’t want A K calling. I am ahead in the hand but A K has 6 outs to “suck out”. (Ok, Blagger is going to be all over this one cause he is going to want to know how much is in the pot, how much the bet was, so he can figure pot odds, etc.). If he calls, I am happy with my chances and will hopefully prevail.
What if the flop comes K, rag, rag, rainbow? I am first to act. What do I do? This is where a lot of beginners make a mistake. They check.
As I mentioned above, there are a lot of possible hands that my opponent can be playing. How are you supposed to “narrow the field” by checking? Checking gives you no additional information on what you are up against. In this scenario, I would bet. Not all-in or anything but a “good” bet. Remember, you pre-flop raised. What your opponent does with the bet will usually give you some real good information.
If he just calls, I would narrow down his possible hands to a K with a “weak” kicker like a Q or a J, or maybe another PP and hoping to catch. I think A K would re-raise. I wouldn’t put them on 2 pair because they probably wouldn’t have called a big pre-flop raise with K crap. If you get re-raised, you are probably beat and you can fold.
Now you’re thinking “Shit, he called. Now what do I do?”.
Ok, lets say the turn is a 10. Yee Haw, you just hit trips. Now what do you do? In my opinion a lot of people make a mistake here with a check because they are trying to trap. Look up two paragraphs and see what hand I could narrow down with a call. K Q or K J. If your opponent is on one of those hands, a check just let him see a free card to see if he can hit a str8. If you check, and he goes all-in on you, you are going to call. (this is another place where you set yourself up for a “suck out”). Your opponent probably won’t put you on trips so a check would, to him, possibly show weakness, and he may force the issue with a medium kicker and a str8 draw.
So, I would have bet the trips, hard. To try to avoid a “suck out” call.
This is what I am talking about. Trying to minimize situations where I put myself in hands that make “suck outs” more possible.
See, I was right. It got longer and more confusing….lol
Anyway, hopefully I will see some of the Skype crew soon. I miss all of ya!
Take care.
Comments are always welcome……
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Comments
5 Responses to “Big pot suck outs – continued”
Got something to say?
Yup I was just making a list of; how much was the raise, what was the blind levels etc.. You got me pegged lol
I agree with most everything in your analysis Dave. Not much room to add anything. A couple of points but nothing big.
Gimme a day to ponder on it I’ll come up with something.
“I want to try to minimize my exposure to being sucked out on.”
I think that is a difficult task mate. The very meaning of the word in poker means you lost the hand whilst holding the best cards and having the odds very much in your favour. That is exactly the plays you are trying to create whilst in the game, your money in with the % on you taking it down. If anything you should be looking for players to (lol) expose yourself to so they can try sucking you out! The stats will pay you off handsomely in the long run.
“I want to learn more about identifying whether or not I am in a situation where I can be sucked out.”
Unless you are holding the absolute nuts you are ALWAYS at a risk of being beat or sucked out. You could play only the nuts all the time but it would be a boring old time of it eh?
Your in depth explanation of what if’s is interesting and pretty much the way I would have perceived the card by card play.
I understand your reasoning on betting the turn card that gave you set and most times I would do the same. But now and then I will try and draw more money out of the pot by allowing the opponent to stay in with a smaller bet.
Sure he/she may suck me out now and then but the % says I will win more than him over the long haul. If I am having a hard time accumulating chips at a table and feel like a gamble (with the odds in my favour) I will tease the suck out players into staying in.
I wouldn’t toy with my tournament life in that situation, but every time a chaser hits the 4%’r on the river and sucks me out, that just boosts their flawed confidence in thinking they knew what they were doing and they are even more likely to try it again and again and again..
I’ll just comment on one bit as it stuck in my head for some reason and that was where you said;
“So, lets say I am the one that raised with PP 10’s and I get a caller. The button calls the raise, everyone else folds. .. My first thought is my opponent isn’t on PP Q’s or higher. If so, they probably would have re-raised (maybe PP A’s being slow played but usually that doesn’t happen).”
That isn’t so black and white for me. When you play a strong pair from pre flop you try to narrow the field by raising, correct? If I pulled AA on the button there I would be tempted to slow play them by flat calling you, simply because YOUR raise has done the narrowing job for me. I now have the nuts and my hand is perfectly disguised by YOUR raise not my call..
But really I am just being a bit pedantic, as a general rule your analysis and breakdown of your thought process is about spot on for my money.
I am going to have to look up “pedantic” and see what that means.
If I was playing and had the A’s I would probably raise. But, your right, it is a very situational play.
I guess I am just trying to become more “aware” while playing. Suck outs happen, it’s part of the game. Over time, you will be ahead if you go in with the winning hands.
Maybe I am over analyizing the whole thing. Monkeys do what Monkeys do.
I just want to be the guy in the hand when the Monkeys luck runs out…lol
Not a lot more I can add to either of your musings. Have to agree that is almost impossible to minimize suckouts. If you’ve got a monkey at the table you’ll be hard pushed to shake them off.
I had an incident a few weeks back where I had PP 9s in late position. A few players had called the BB and I raised it up almost 6x the BB. One person called me, who up to that point had hardly played a hand, but when they did, they played the ususal range from J9 upwards With them only calling pre-flop before I had raised it, I knew they probably only had overcards at most. Q rag rag hit the flop. They checked, and as they were pretty shortstacked after calling my raise – and I had them more than covered – I put them all in and they called instantly. They turned over Q7 suited. I got no help from the turn or river and doubled them up. The reason they played it…… yup you got it….. it was sooooooted!
OK, this wasn’t a suckout, but it was a rediculous monkey play on their part all the way through the hand. You can try all you want to force people to fold, but if the monkey brain clicks into gear there is no telling what might happen. Even if I had had pocked aces this muppet would have called. You just cannot legislate for these people.
People will tell you that with the example you have given above, most of the time you will win that race. However, it really sucks when you lose it!
6 X the BB raise I would have expected to see a High Ace or maybe even another PP but not a Q 7.
It can be quite frustrating.
You sit there, trying to play the game to the best of your ability and some Monkey comes along and takes a bunch of your chips. ARggggg