Well, I am back
July 10, 2007
I am back from a well deserved Holiday in Florida with my 2 sisters and most of the kids (2 were missing because of other commitments).
There was no Internet access the whole time we were there.
Of course, we did sneak in a little live poker one night. We played a couple of $5 buy in mini tourny’s. I got second in both and got my money back plus a little.
One of the guys playing was fairly good (too aggressive with crap cards) and my Nephew who is pretty good just didn’t get any cards.
As with most home games, there was a lot of Monkey play and you have to be careful not to get sucked out but all in all, it was fun.
I will work on posting some pics of the alligators, shrimp boil, rope swing, and other festivities when I get some time and maybe Paulies help. I have to go to Chicago for a couple of days on business. If I stay over down there. I will try to get on Skype.
I also have a Hot Water Heater incident I will discuss in more detail later.
I have been reading the blogs lately about sites, rewarding Monkey play, etc.
I’ll tell ya, I have a hard time believing a Poker site is going to reward stupid play just to keep games moving or because you just took money from their site.
I realize it is hard to accept and logically reason why people are winning hands when you go in with the best but maybe it has a lot to do with perspective.
I have not formulated all of my thoughts on this yet but one of the analogies I think of is like this.
Lets say you are interested in buying a new type of car. Prior to considering the type of car you want, you don’t remember seeing any in your area. Then, once you decide on the type of car you want, you realize there are a lot more cars in your area that you never noticed before. You don’t conscientiously think about it but you notice them more anyway.
Maybe this is type of thinking is part of what everyone is experiencing. Everyone is now focused either conscientiously or sub conscientiously on the “bad beat” sceniario at a particular site.
How many times prior to the “bad beat” did you win when you should have? Maybe you have expereinced “bad beats” at other sites but haven’t noticed as much.
This, of course, does not apply to not getting cards as in Lippy’s case. Not getting cards is just not getting cards.
I just have a hard time believing that out of the thousands of players that play there, they picked out Lippy, decided he needed to loose, and adjusted the RNG just so HE didn’t get cards AND can’t win like the others once in a while with a 1 or 2 outer.
See what I mean?
As far as messing with the RNG, I go back to the age old question of Why? Why would a site risk everything to take a few $2, $5, SNG’s from someone that “should have” won and give it to someone who shouldn’t have won? Either way, they are paying out. What would be the benefit?
It is a very interesting topic.
Right now, I have to go and get ready for my trip.
Give me your thoughts and comments.
Thanks,
Comments
7 Responses to “Well, I am back”
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I’ve just deleted a very long post… basically because what I wanted to say I’ve already covered in my blog!
Suffice to say, that I agree that sites won’t or, in fact, can’t cheat their customers through their software. The regulators would come down on them like a ton of bricks. And they would lose their customers.
However, at the sites I was referring to (Abs and Vegas), you don’t seem to get the odd one or two bad beats. You get a huge run of them. You may remember my bad run went on for over three months. OK, some of it was down to me, but usually I was taken out exactly the same way in all the games I played at these two sites at the time. Either rivered or out to a runner-runner. I’ve never had that kind of thing happen to me at any other site (except the old jetset site) in all the time I’ve been playing online poker.
And now that others are coming forward complaining of the exact same sequence of events, it does make you wonder why it happens.
I don’t think we’ll ever get an answer as to why it happens for such a long streak as opposed to other sites. I just think its crappy software which produces unrealistic results. But I do think that sites quicken games so as to get others started, hence making more money. But I would say this applies to all online sites and not just Abs/Vegas.
But as has been said to me plenty times before… If you don’t like a site then don’t play there! There’s plenty of other places to play…..
Lets do some basic math and some basic psychology.
A ficticious player “Joe Newbie” decides he wants to get in on the poker action everyone seems to be talking about. He see’s a game on TV and is convinced to try it out.
He stumbles upon a site he decides to try. Using the sites in question this scenarior will continue.
He deposits the minimum which is $20 I believe. Big mistake. Why?. Because he later discovers that in order to withdraw, he must have at least $50 remaining in his account. Thats ripoff #1.
Before he realizes this though, he plays a few sng’s. Being a novice, he makes plenty of monkey plays and is rewarded. Those were my chips and my buyin. He won some money, I lost some money and the site got 20 cents from every person in the game.
The novice now is psyched into thinking he always stands a decent chance.
The site knows he cant withdraw for a long while yet and continues the ploy.
Just think. At a $2 buyin the site makes 20 cents per player. It’s exponential as the buyin raises. I can’t even imagine how many buyins or percentages the house accumulates in one day, yet alone a week, month, or year.
To what benifit to the site would it be to let randomness actually exist?
For example; Joe Newbie gets in a game. He plays monkey to people like us who study poker, the odds, position, good starting cards, etc. etc.
Joe gets wiped out within 6 games. As well he should.
Does Joe deposite more money? Not likely. So now the site just lost another 20 cent per game profit. Magniify this by 100 joe’s a day, for a week, month, year. Get the picture?
So the sites use players with enough money to hopefully accept the fact that they are gonna lose some money to the “joes” to keep the action(profits) going.
In Nevada as with most gambling states or countrys, there exist regulations and regulaters. Lets use slot machines now for added controversy.
These are regulated to pay out certain amounts over a certain amount of play. Even though you hit a few payouts, eventually in the long run you lose, providing you play long enough. They are set up that way and everyone knows that they are indeed “one armed bandits”
Regulators constantly check them for payout structure. They fine or confiscate liscenses for deviations to the laws on these gambling tools.
The occasional payouts are designed to entice (psychologically) players to keep playing.
Online poker is another story altogether.
Supposedly, they are set up with RNG’s to ensure fair play.
Bull Squat.
Who tests the validity of these RNG’s..Colleges, who recieve endowments from these sites. hmmmm? And the state or country accepts this as legitimate.
Eventually, online poker will go the way of the DODO bird as poker will ultimately be legalized nearly everywhere. Soon we will all enjoy being able to walk to the nearest bar and play. We will miss the convenience of playing from home and the ability to smoke and drink cheap while we play online.
With a little luck, we will find live games that (still) only cost $2 to enter as in online…NOT!!!…..hehe
Anyway folks, I do honestly believe there is corruption in the RNG myth.
Years ago a slot mechanic proved there was always a way to figure that RNG was beatable..he won millions and was eventually caught.
He was hired to shore up the RNG system to make it better. He was later caught screwing it again. It happens, has happened and will happen. It is not flawless and it is not infallable. There will always be someone screwing with it for gain. Greed is always around. It never dies. Cheaters eventually get caught only to be replaced by more and more advanced cheaters.
In closing I would like to say that I for one , will NEVER put my hard earned money into online poker. The money I play with will ALL be from my original winnings from freerolls or the profits as a result of games played using those funds from freerolls. Playing online is convenient and cheap, so I’ll continue to play, but be assured, I will rant from time to time.
It is my God given right.
Dave, you do know that your links appearing at the bottom of the page instead of the top as usual? Or are you just trying to freak us out…. lol!
Ok, I see both of your points.
Like Goph says. I remember when Jet Set was around. After a while, I started playing any 2 sutied cards because Jet Set had an unusally high amount of flushes. So, I would say their RNG wasn’t the best.
Lippy, I understand your point too. The question I have about “Joe Newbie” is how did he make it that far in SNG to take someone out late in the game with crap cards?
We all know in the first 2 or three hands who the Monkeys at the table are. They usually don’t make it too far because of that. If your theory is correct, they would have to be rewarded all the way throughout the tourny and I don’t see that happening very often.
I did have one additional thought.
What if the site is “plugging in” players to keep tables full? And, late in the tourny they are supposed to loose so they play a few hands of crap cards to go out, but hit once in a while.
Plus, I would think the site would want the better players like us to win more because as we build our stacks, we go to bigger buy in tournys where the rake is higher.
I would give up Joe Newbies 20 cent rake to keep someone playing at my site that may eventually play at a $20 dollar rake table.
All of that being said, it is a business and they are out to make money.
I think it would be interesting to hear some sort of explaination from a Rep from one of the sites on how the whole RNG thing works.
Goph, what links are you talking about?
Great topic of conversation. Thanks!
I agree that it would be good for a rep or even a regulator to comment on RNG’s and the ways in that they are checked/tested.
As for the links Dave, I mean the ones that are normally on the right hand side of the page linking to the other blogs / recent comments / recent posts etc.. I can only find them by scrolling to the bottom of the page.
Has anyone here ever researched the RNG regulators for a poker site, who they are, where they are based etc? Might prove to be interesting ‘project’ for someone..
I did a quick search regarding AP and their regulators and security systems etc.
Though this was only a quick 5 minute delve into the background of this issue, I could not find any mention of a college testing or handing out certificates of compliance?
I did find a company that on the face of it seems a pretty legit outfit carrying out the tests on the RNG etc of AP. They have a pretty impressive worldwide client list including state lotteries and such.
Of course this doesn’t mean they are not corrupt and they could be working with their various clients to produce fraudulent results.
I also did a quick check for possible director ‘conflict of interest’ etc couldn’t find anything, again though this was only a scratch at the surface of information that is out there, if anyone wants or has the itch to research this further, here is the url home page of Technical Systems Testing (TST) the company that handles APs’ RNG compliance stuff.
http://www.tstglobal.com/
I’d be very interested to know of anything.. good, bad or indifferent, if anyone does decide to chase it up a little deeper.
Oh and Welcome Back Dave